Clinton's Texas

Deep in the red, red state of Texas, Erica Greider observes Hillary Clinton's Texas popularity and theorizes about Bernie Sander's loss in the Texas democratic primaries. Greider points out three items that lead her to believe Clinton will win the Texas primaries. 1.) Clinton's centrist views, 2.) her Texas nomination in 2008, and 3.) Texas connections.

While the second two are good pointers, Clinton's actual policies are what makes her a Democratic Texan favorite. Especially when set next to ultra-left Bernie Sanders, Clinton is relatively moderate. She voted for the Patriot Act in 2001, has had a pro-war foreign policy, and doesn't actively slam the 1%. Of course, she remains distinctly democrat with left policies such as pro-choice and substantial gun control, but a little right goes a long way. Even the democrats of Texas cannot help but pick up on the overall conservative political culture, causing them to favor the centrist democratic candidates. 

Hillary's moderate views are what led her to Texan victory in the 2008 primaries. Greider sums up her view of the Texan democrat culture in 2008, "Only in Texas did I regularly encounter Democratic voters who were sincerely, spontaneously enthusiastic about Clinton." Those who were enthusiastic for Clinton in 2008 will be voters once again in 2016.

Along with a good Texan track record, Clinton has ties with Texas. She also achieved the highest honor Texans care about - she lived in Texas. In the 1970's, both Clintons lived in San Antonio while working on a campaign, and it has inspired a sort of hometown pride for San Antonio democrats. Her ties get stronger with endorsements from multiple Texas politicians like Leticia Van de Putte and Carlos Uresti. Her best Texas tie is a biggie with Julian Castro, previous mayor of San Antonio, who is assumed to be her potential running mate. 

However, Erica Greider does mention a few doubts to Clinton's coronation. Bernie Sanders held widely attended rallied in Houston and San Antonio in July. Sanders does have substantial Texas support. It's hard to drive through an Austin neighborhood without running into a "Bernie 2016" yard sign or bumper sticker. However, his left-of-left policies seem hard to stomach with the general Texas democrat culture. The other threat to Clinton - in Texas and nationally - is Joe Biden's tauntingly unclear presidential candidacy. Greider admits that should Biden run, he could offset Clinton's overall Texas popularity.

While Sanders or Biden might not be major threats to Clinton, her positive 2008 track record is not as positive as Greider made it out to be.  Clinton won the democratic primaries by approximately 3% - really too small a margin to give as a point to Hillary. 

Doubts considered, Hillary Clinton  is still the more moderate of the democratic front runners and her substantial Texas ties point to a Texas primaries win.